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The probability of economic collapse in Armenia - a myth or a real threat?
Are the concerns about the economic collapse in Armenia currently exaggerated or is it really a serious threat to the state, which can cause new catastrophes in the country? What are the possible prerequisites and causes of the collapse? Is governance the main source of threat? This study aims to provide answers to the above questions and assess the likelihood of economic collapse in Armenia. The risks and vulnerabilities accumulated in the economic system of the Republic of Armenia for the last three years were analyzed, as well as the anti-crisis policy of the Government of the RA to deal with the catastrophe that hit the country in 2020 was discussed. The Government's previous experience of successfully coping with the 2009 crisis, and some examples of countries that have gone through an economic collapse were brought. Reference was made to the possible steps that the current Government can take, learning from the previous experience of effective governance in the state, as well as from the devastating mistakes of the collapsed countries. At the end of the research, the possible scenario and mechanisms of economic collapse were modeled using modern econometric methods, as well as their possible effects on the economy were assessed. Full material is only available in Armenian․
