Գլխավոր - Լույս Հիմնադրամ

3 Buzand street, 0010 Yerevan, Armenia +37412400004 [email protected]

ՍՈՎՈՐԵԼ. ԳՈՐԾԵԼ. ՀԱՄԱՍՏԵՂԾԵԼ

A study on the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first nine months of 2021

The objective of the present analysis is to assess the execution of the state budget of the RA in the given period. First, we describe the general state of the economy of the RA, namely the driving forces of economic activity, the developments in individual sectors of the economy, the behavior of the components of the demand – consumption and investment – and so on. Afterwards, we analyze the performance of government revenues and expenditures by comparing the actual and planned values of the respective indicators. We conclude the analysis by summarizing the main observations and results. Full material is only available in Armenian․

100 days of Lilit Makunts activities

The objective of this analysis is to study the efficiency of the activities of the 7th Ambassador of Armenia to the United States Mrs. Lilit Makunts during the first 100 days in office. For that purpose, the following issues were separately analyzed: Ambassador’s work with the Biden administration, Congress, Armenian community and Armenian organizations as well as public diplomacy on social media, in the American press, in think-tanks etc. The subject of a separate study will be the bilateral agenda proposed by the Ambassador and its peculiarities. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-October 2021

In the present analysis, given the data published by the Statistical Committee of the RA, we study the recent social-economic developments in the economy of the RA. In particular, we consider the cumulative indicator of economic activity of the given month, its sectoral distribution, as well as the dynamics of individual sectors of the economy. We also analyze economic developments in the foreign trade, labour market and fiscal system of the RA. In addition, some aspects of the financial system (inflation, deposits and loans), as well as the behaviour of the exchange rate, are touched upon. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The impact of China's regional policy on the countries of the South Caucasus

China's growing interest and involvement in the Greater Middle East also has an impact on the geopolitical processes in the South Caucasus. Initially, after the collapse of the USSR, the main struggle for influence and dominance in the region was between the West and the Russian Federation. However, in recent years, on the one hand, the strengthening of the positions of regional actors, such as Turkey and Iran, on the other hand, the growing interest of China in the region have made the struggle of major powers for supremacy in the South Caucasus more dynamic and variegated. Within the framework of this analysis, we studied the impact of China's regional policy on the South Caucasus countries, in this context, presenting our vision of the Armenian-Chinese relations. This article is part of a comprehensive analysis published by the “Luys” Foundation entitled "China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran" which you can read at the following link: https://www.luys.am/index.php?m=publicationsOne&pid=246&lang=eng

The Key Targets of the Economic Policy of the RA Government

What is the economic development strategy of the government of the Republic of Armenia after the change of power in April-May 2018, and what are its benchmarks? Why and how did the RA executive power fail the state economic policy and what are the main reasons for the failures? How does the current government see the future of the Armenian economy in the next 5 years? Are these ideas realistic and what can actually be predicted? The objective of this study is to provide answers to the questions posed by analyzing the key goals specified in the programs of the government for 2019 and 2021: from economic growth to structural economic reforms, from promises to improve the quality of life of the population and ensure social protection to effective management of public finances and ensuring macroeconomic stability. Full material is only available in Armenian․

Content analysis of the statements of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs after the 44-day war. Why did the basic principles disappear? What do we mean saying

The OSCE Minsk Group remains the only internationally recognized structure for a final and long-term settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, at least as long as neither side officially announced its rejection of this format. The cornerstone of the conflict has always been the fight of the Artsakh Armenians for the realization of the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, which, after long negotiations, was fixed by the parties to the conflict and the co-chairs in the form of basic principles and elements. Shortly after the end of the 44-day war, on December 3, 2020, the statement of the MFAs of the Co-chair countries raised some hopes for the resumption of the comprehensive settlement process. However, in the following months, the Minsk Group statements underwent significant substantive changes; the reference to the basic principles of the conflict settlement was gradually removed from the public texts. In the framework of this article, we have tried to understand why the basic principles disappeared from the official statements of the Minsk Group, why the references to them are much more important than the fluid statements made by Armenian officials about the status of Artsakh.

Turkey-China relations: from cooperation to competition

From the point of view of correct understanding of China's policy in the Middle East, it is impossible to ignore the latter's relations with Turkey, which has a huge influence in the region and plays an important economic, communication, military-political role. Turkey is involved in almost all geopolitical processes and conflicts in the region, and is an important geographical hub within the framework of China's "Belt and Road" initiative. Ankara's influence and pan-Turkic aspirations from the Caucasus to Central Asia are at least a matter of long-term concern for China. In the framework of this analysis, we have studied the peculiarities of Turkey-China relations. This article is part of a comprehensive analysis published by the “Luys” Foundation entitled "China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran" which you can read at the following link:https://www.luys.am/index.php?m=publicationsOne&pid=246&lang=eng

Present and future of Iranian-Chinese strategic cooperation

Any superpower, if it pursues the goal of dominance or at least a decisive role in the Middle East, can not ignore the interests of the major regional powers. Iran is perhaps one of the most important regional actors in the Greater Middle East, and China has key interests in that country. In order to properly analyze Beijing's regional policy, we have tried to understand the peculiarities and prospects of its relations with Tehran. This article is part of a comprehensive analysis published by the “Luys” Foundation entitled "China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran" which you can read at the following link: https://www.luys.am/index.php?m=publicationsOne&pid=246&lang=eng

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-September 2021

Incomes of the population of Armenia after the change of government

After the political changes in 2018, the new Government of the Republic of Armenia announced about the need of creating a free, dignified, happy citizen, the key factors of which are improving the living standards of the population, more equal and fair distribution of incomes, poverty alleviation, eradication of extreme poverty and strengthening of social security. What has been done by the government to fulfill its promises and what results have been achieved? How the income of the population has changed in 2017-2021? Has the standard of living of the society improved? This study examines these and a number of similar issues by comparative analysis of indicators for 2017-2020 as well as by analyzing the feasibility of implementing the relevant provisions the program of the newly formed government for 2021-2026. The full material is available only in Armenian.

44-Day War and the Gradual Decline of “America First” Diplomacy

Washington has been involved in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict within the format of the OSCE Minsk Group since the beginning. Even in 2001, the US-mediated negotiations seemed to offer a solution to the conflict. However, Washington's involvement gradually waned as a result of important but not vital US interests in the region, Trump's promotion of "America First" diplomacy, and the strong influence of the Russian factor in the region. In the early stages of the Artsakh war, unleashed by Azerbaijan in September 2020, the Trump administration took a significantly more passive stance than the leaders of the other two Minsk Group co-chairing countries. However, high-level involvement gradually increased, not limited to the institutional level. The war also coincided with the US pre-election campaign, which somehow affected the stance of Trump’s administration. Unlike the previous administration, the Biden administration attempts to increase the US influence in the region. Against the background of recent statements made by official Washington, it can be concluded that this has a direct reflection in the conflict settlement process. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-August 2021

China's ambitions in the race of superpowers for the Greater Middle East

China, which has been growing at an unprecedented rate in recent decades, strengthening its position in various parts of the world, intends to change the existing world order and to become a key player in the new world order. In terms of world order and the geopolitical race of superpowers, the Greater Middle East is by far the most important region in the world, where superpowers are always competing for hegemony. To get a clear idea of the race for influence in the region, in this analysis we tried to understand what influence and interests China and its main competitors, first of all the United States and Russia, have in the region. This article is part of a comprehensive analysis published by the “Luys” Foundation entitled "China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran" which you can read at the following link: https://www.luys.am/index.php?m=publicationsOne&pid=246&lang=eng

China's policy in the Middle East and South Caucasus on the example of relations with Turkey and Iran

In the Middle East and the South Caucasus, China is gradually becoming one of the important geopolitical factors with which all countries in the region seek to build new quality relations. In order to correctly represent the race for superiority in the region, in this analysis we tried to understand what kind of influence and what interests have China and its main competitors in the region, primarily the United States and Russia. Turkey and Iran play a key role in the South Caucasus, therefore, within the framework of this analysis, we separately examined China's relations with each of these countries. Finally, we tried to understand the impact of China's regional policy on the South Caucasus countries, and also presented the vision and prospects for the development of the Armenian-Chinese relations. One of the important conclusions of this analysis is that deepening multilayer relations with the Iran-China axis can become a geopolitical alternative for Armenia, which, in the event of the collapse of the existing regional security system, will insure the country against existential threats, at the same time, under current conditions, will not create serious obstacles in the Armenian-Russian relations. Full material is availa...

US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Domestic and foreign policy consequences and Russia's new opportunity

In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks against the United States, the fight against terrorism became a priority for the USА, leading to the engagement in the longest war in American history in Afghanistan. After G. Bush era, several U.S. administrations began to realize that there are other foreign policy priorities for the United States and there is a need to end "forever war” in Afghanistan. This led to the gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. The complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan took place under the 46th U.S. President Joe Biden. Although the U.S. troops have now been completely withdrawn from Afghanistan, the withdrawal has been a very hectic, rapid and disorganized process, for which Biden and his administration have been widely criticized. This paper will discuss the process of withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, its domestic political consequences for the Biden administration, as well as Russia's response and possible further steps in the current situation. Full material is available only in Armenian․

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-July 2021

On the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first half of 2021

The G7 plan to counter China's growing influence․ BRI vs B3W

During the 2021, G7 summit in the UK, Build Back Better World (“B3W”) global infrastructure initiative was launched, which has the ambition of becoming a serious challenger to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (“BRI”). The B3W project aims to fill the 40+ trillion infrastructure gap in the developing world by 2035. This article identifies the potential of the B3W project, its challenges and obstacles, the prospects of possible competition with the Chinese BRI initiative, as well as Armenia's role in the implementation of the B3W project. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Energy Transition Index in the RA (2021)

The study of indicators and indices published by international organizations allows to address two important problems. First, to assess the performance of the RA in the given period with the help of comprehensive numerical measures, as well as to make intertemporal comparisons in order to understand whether the country moves in the desirable direction. Second, to compare the performance of the RA with other countries to ascertain Armenia’s relative position in the region and Eurasian Economic Union. These results are important, since they help to derive the comprehensive assessment of the economic situation, which is needed both for the public and the private sector. The present analysis is aimed at addressing the foregoing problems. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Global Gender Gap Index in the RA (2020)

Medium-Term Public Expenditure Framework for 2022-2024

The primary document that defines the medium-term (that is, for the upcoming three years) objectives of the government of the RA is the framework of public medium-term expenditures (MTEF), which is at the same time one of the main tools for fiscal policy communication. The effective use of the MTEF for that purpose is especially important in both crisis and post-crisis periods (such as the 2021 year), as it can give policy signals to economic agents, positively affect expectations and decrease the uncertainty in the economy. The present analysis is aimed at exploring the MTEF for 2022-2024, in particular the structure of the program, the main macroeconomic forecasts and directions of fiscal policy, which reflect the government's expectations regarding the further development of the economic situation as well as government actions to ensure a rapid economic recovery. Since the government's debt burden exceeded the legal limit in 2020, the analysis also considers the government's debt reduction program for 2022-2026. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-June 2021

Quo Vadis, Armenia? A Two-Fold Mission of Parliamentary Opposition

It was supposed that through the 2021 snap parliamentary elections Armenia would overcome the consequences of the crisis resulted from the Azerbaijani-Turkish military aggression in 2020. The results of the elections came as a surprise to many. The political force whose catastrophic mistakes resulted in heavy defeat in the war, thousands of casualties, wounded, captives, tens of thousands of displaced people, huge material and moral losses, received almost twice as many votes as the opposition and remained in power. Nevertheless, the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the election results shows that the impression of a great superiority in elections is deceptive: only 26.2% of voters expressed trust in the ruling political force, by means of the absolute use of administrative resources and mass violations. Moreover, even in that case, the registered votes for the ruling political force are only a few percent higher than the threshold required to form a government. The elections also marked the collapse of the multi-party system in Armenia. 25 political forces took part in elections, whereas from 9 to 11 political parties participated in the previous general elections. Still, the overwhelming majority of voters voted for indi...

The probability of economic collapse in Armenia - a myth or a real threat?

Are the concerns about the economic collapse in Armenia currently exaggerated or is it really a serious threat to the state, which can cause new catastrophes in the country? What are the possible prerequisites and causes of the collapse? Is governance the main source of threat? This study aims to provide answers to the above questions and assess the likelihood of economic collapse in Armenia. The risks and vulnerabilities accumulated in the economic system of the Republic of Armenia for the last three years were analyzed, as well as the anti-crisis policy of the Government of the RA to deal with the catastrophe that hit the country in 2020 was discussed. The Government's previous experience of successfully coping with the 2009 crisis, and some examples of countries that have gone through an economic collapse were brought. Reference was made to the possible steps that the current Government can take, learning from the previous experience of effective governance in the state, as well as from the devastating mistakes of the collapsed countries. At the end of the research, the possible scenario and mechanisms of economic collapse were modeled using modern econometric methods, as well as their possible effects on the economy were asses...

On the annual report for the year 2020 of the Audit Chamber of the RA

This reference summarizes the annual report for the year 2020 of the Audit Chamber of the Republic of Armenia on audits selected via risk-based methodology. In particular, the reference presents the general description of the above-mentioned audits (areas of auditing, types, nature of registered violations, etc.), as well as the most significant facts of the audits included in the annual report. Full material is only available in Armenian․

On the conclusion of the Central Bank of Armenia on the execution of the RA state budget for 2020

This reference summarizes the conclusion of the Central Bank of Armenia on the execution of the RA state budget for 2020. The most remarkable assessments and problems of budget execution, registered by the Central Bank, are presented. In particular, the topics included in the reference relate to the partial and incomplete implementation of the anti-crisis measures of 2020, the underperformance of capital expenditures of the state budget, the sharp increase in the level of public debt, as well as problems related to the restoration of the potential of the Armenian economy. Full material is only available in Armenian․

On the conclusion of the Audit Chamber on the implementation of the RA 2020 state budget

This reference summarizes the conclusion of the Audit Chamber on the implementation of the RA 2020 state budget. In particular, the reference includes the most notable violations of the RA state budget execution registered by the Audit Chamber in 2020 and the corresponding recommendations for their elimination. The topics are on the state procurement process, the program classification of state budget expenditures, the performance of non-financial indicators of the state budget, the internal audit process conducted in state bodies, and other issues registered in terms of state budget execution. Full material is only available in Armenian․

On the execution report of the state budget of the RA of 2020

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-May 2021

Luys Foundation Annual Report - 2020

During the reporting period, the Luys Foundation team carried out large-scale analytical-research work, covering a wide variety of topics.Our focus is on the current developments in law, economy, politics, international relations. During the year, our team published about 70 researches, in which not only the existing problems and challenges were analyzed, but also appropriate solutions were sought and suggested.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-April 2021

On the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first quarter of 2021

Centralized register of bank accounts. New challenges for banking secrecy

A draft law is being discussed in the National Assembly, according to which the Central Bank should create and maintain a centralized register of bank accounts, in which all commercial banks operating in the territory of the Republic of Armenia must necessarily participate. The information included in the centralized register of bank accounts relates to the right of banking secrecy, derived from the fundamental right to private life guaranteed by article 31 of the Constitution. In this context, the draft law is problematic from the point of view of compliance with the requirements of the Constitution in the case of restrictions on basic human rights. The draft law does not regulate the procedure of maintenance of the centralized register of bank accounts, the procedure and grounds for providing information from it and the range of bodies to which this information may be available. Taking into account that the draft law concerns the right of banking secrecy, all these issues should be addressed on the level of law. The study of international experience shows that, in contrast to the draft law, international documents offer regulations that allow to ensure balance of interests and guarantee confidence in the banking system, and d...

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-March 2021

Geopolitics and genocide

The use of the term "Genocide" in the US President Biden's Statement is a milestone in the process of recognizing the Armenian Genocide, despite the fact that some see it as a punitive step against Turkey pursuing its own policy in various areas without the consent of Washington. For Armenia and Armenians all over the world, there is also a third aspect of the problem, no less important than the two mentioned. In his Statement, Biden noted his determination to prevent such new disasters. The former US President did not show such determination during the large-scale Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression in 2020. Six months after the ceasefire was established, the threat of genocide against the Armenians of Artsakh has not disappeared, as evidenced by the rhetoric and actions of Turkey and Azerbaijan. The events in East Timor, South Sudan and Kosovo show that such a threat is significantly reduced only by the exercise of the right of people of conflict area to self-determination and the international recognition of a state based on it. The research shows that there are real preconditions for the recognition of the independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. All that is needed is the determination and adherence of the international commu...

The authoritarian path of Erdogan’s Turkey and Armenia

Turkey's internal political processes and changes in the country’s state ideology greatly influence Ankara's regional policy. Erdogan's authoritarian Turkey, spiced with nationalist and Islamic ideas, has once again become one of the main threats to regional security. Therefore, when assessing the challenges emanating from Turkey, it is necessary not only to study its foreign and security policy, but also to correctly assess the internal political processes taking place there. Within the framework of this analysis, we tried to study the processes of the establishment and strengthening of authoritarian rule in Turkey by Erdogan, their ideological foundations and their influence on Ankara's foreign and regional policy. At the same time, we have recorded that some episodes of the working style of the current Turkish and Armenian authorities on the way to establish authoritarianism in the country have strange similarities. However, if the strengthening of Erdogan's authoritarian rule in Turkey is aimed at implementing the nationalist, expansionist programs of this country, then the establishment of an authoritarian system in Armenia without any pro-state ideology has already led the country to a disaster and may threaten the ex...

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-February 2021

Reference on the execution of the budget of the city of Yerevan (2020)

The budget execution report of Yerevan represents the main results – achievements and failures - of activities of the city council in the given period. It shows by how much the actual revenue collection deviates from the planned level. Additionally, the report demonstrates whether the expenditures were made in accordance with the prespecified plan. The budget execution report of Yerevan also characterizes the structure of actual revenues and expenditures. The goal of the present analysis is to study the foregoing report and to make necessary conclusions. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Draft amendments to the electoral code: Analysis of the major amendments

On 4 March 2020, the ruling “My Step” faction of the National Assembly came up with legislative initiative on amendments to the electoral legislation of the Republic of Armenia. The President of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia requested the Venice Commission to provide a legal opinion on the draft amendments.The analysis by the “Luys” Foundation addresses most problematic aspects of the legislative package, in particular, the proportional electoral system and stable majority clause. The analysis also refers to the other amendments envisaged by draft amendments to the electoral code.

The Index of Economic Freedom in the RA (2021)

Social Mobility Index (2020)

EU Budget Support Programs in Armenia (2016-2020)

The European Union provides financial support to Armenia mainly within the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy. The support is provided through the annual action plans signed with the partner country every year. These documents define the areas of EU support, the scope and mechanisms for the provision of assistance as well as financial instruments, one of which is the budget support. The EU budget support is one of the main form of EU assistance to Armenia. It includes transfers of funds to the partner country’s state treasury and is used to support the partner country’s reform efforts in mutually agreed sectors, as well as to improve capacity for policy development. This study presents the EU budget support programs provided to Armenia, the principles of their implementation and progress of their implementation in 2016-2020. Full material is available only in Armenian

2020 war. preconditions, consequences and disaster recovery opportunities

In 2020, the Azeri-Turkish military aggression and the capitulation of the Armenian authorities had disastrous effects for the Republic of Armenia and for the Republic of Artsakh: thousands of victims and captives, tens of thousands wounded, huge material and moral losses, loss of all territories “adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh”, loss of parts of Askeran, Hadrut, Martuni, Martakert regions of Nagorno-Karabakh, the cities of Shushi and Hadrut, the defeat of the Armenian army, the reshaping of a number of border areas of the Republic of Armenia in favor of Azerbaijan, the sharp deterioration of relations with the allies, and the reputation of an unreliable and irresponsible partner. Given such huge losses, it is obviously difficult to single out the internal and external factors. Meanwhile, the key events of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict make the study of external relations a priority, in particular after the change of power in 2018, as prior to the war it was already clear that there are many challenges and fundamental mistakes endangering the conflict settlement process. But the failures were not limited to the settlement process, and even to the war. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the totally fail...

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January 2021

The current account deficit in the balance of payments Of the economy of the RA: Causes and consequences

As of 2019, relative to GDP current account deficit of the economy of the RA is estimated at 7.2%. This is the worst performance in the South Caucasus. Given that the economy of the RA has been characterized by current account deficit constantly ever since its independence, it is clear that there are structural disproportions in its model of economic development. In this paper it is shown that in the RA the current account deficit is primarily caused by insufficient national savings. In addition, it is established that this phenomenon is precarious insofar as it leads to higher levels of consolidated external debt of the private and public sectors. By testing the hypothesis of twin deficits it is revealed that fiscal consolidation could contribute to the formation of external balance in the economy of the RA.

Corruption Perceptions Index in the RA (2020)

The future of Russian-American relations and the

This analysis is dedicated to the discussion of the foreign policy vision of the administration of the 46th US President Joe Biden regarding Russia. By examining the past and present positions of members of his administration on Russia and Russian-American relations, it becomes apparent that there are high-ranking officials in the Biden administration who have a pronounced anti-Russian stance. The latter do not see the prospects for large-scale Russian-American cooperation, especially under the current president of Russia. At the same time, potential cooperation in the areas of mutual interest, for example, in the field of reduction of nuclear arms, is not excluded. Russia will continue to be seen as the United States' main rival, and the United States will try to counter the spread of Russian influence in all directions.

Parliamentary oversight. Tools and mechanisms in the Republic of Armenia

The book on “Parliamentary oversight. Tools and mechanisms in the Republic of Armenia” explains the oversight role of the National Assembly of Armenia in the parliamentary system of government and presents the tools for parliamentary oversight provided by the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia and other legal acts. Special focus is made on the rights of parliamentary minority and issues of effective implementation of the oversight mechanisms by the latter. Additionally, analysis of international experience of certain oversight tools is provided. The addressees of the book are practitioners, as well as academia, students, researchers of the role of parliament in a parliamentary system, and those interested in development of parliamentary culture.

Corridors from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan and the risks for Armenia

The recent war in Artsakh, among other things, has also affected the communication problems in the region. While various experts are trying to assess the possible economic and political consequences of unblocking transport links in the region, the prospect of restoring transport links from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan is especially important for Armenia from a security point of view. Within the framework of this analysis, we tried to understand what the consequences of the November 10 statement will be for transport communications in the South Caucasus, what risks the construction of Azerbaijan-Armenia-Nakhichevan transport corridors may pose․ We also considered the formation of new corridors in the context of the conflict of interests of regional and global actors. As a result of the analysis, we have come to the conclusion that from the security point of view, the 9th point of the November 10 statement poses more new threats for Armenia than it creates opportunities. In the text of the statement, only the Armenian side is clearly committed to providing security guarantees for Azerbaijan-Nakhichevan transport links, while there are no security guarantees for other communications, which may create grounds for a new conflict, endange...

Specialization of judges in pre-trial criminal proceedings in Armenia. Challenges and risks

The legislative amendments submitted by the government of the Republic of Armenia are aimed at introducing the institute of judges specialized in pre-trial criminal proceedings. The analysis conducted by the “Luys” foundation addresses most problematic aspects of the legislative package, in particular, the validity, effectiveness and risks of a narrow specialization of judges, possible political motives, which raise concerns from the point of constitutionality as well as efficiency and expediency. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-December 2020

Comparative analysis of public procurement processes of the Government of Armenia in 2017-2020

The ruling political force of Armenia has repeatedly announced about the need of a fair and transparent public procurement system. The introduction of such a system as well as of an effective system of procurement of goods and services in the right time and in proper volume, excluding the practices of conflict of interests, is also defined by the Government Program 2019, considering it as one of the main activities directed to increase the efficiency of public administration. To what extent public procurements meet these promises? Does the Government of the Republic of Armenia follow the tendering procedure or rely on the “single person” procurement procedure? This study aims to clarify these and a number of similar issues by comparative analysis of indicators for 2017-2020. The full material is available only in Armenian.

Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia for the development of the Agriculture sector in Armenia

Development of the agriculture sector, an increase in the usage of unused agricultural land purposefully, increase of the effectiveness of agriculture and the introduction of modern technologies were announced as the main axes of the agrarian policy of the current government of the Republic of Armenia. How is the agricultural policy being implemented today, what support mechanisms are used in agriculture, what is the interest in them, are the agricultural extension services and how they operate. This study aims to clarify these and a number of similar issues. The document provides also detailed statistical analysis of 2016-2020 years, providing comparative analysis of relevant indicators. While comparing data of different periods of time, it should be noted that this study was ready for publication at the end of September, but was not published due to the military situation. The full material is only available in Armenian.

Reference on the budget of Yerevan of 2021

The budget of Yerevan sets the priorities of the economy of the city for the upcoming year. In the budget the planned level of revenues, as well as its structure is presented. In addition, the planned level of expenditures and its distribution by functional and economic classifications are determined. The forecasting of revenues and expenditures is followed by the planning of the budget deficit and the sources of financing it. Given the importance of this document and the programs embedded there, the present analysis aims to assess whether the budget of Yerevan and its structure are consistent with the problems confronting the city. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-November 2020

Human Development Indices and Indicators in the RA (2020)

The effects of shocks in 2020 on the Government debt of RA

2020 began with a coronavirus crisis, and ends with the Artsakh war, and political instability. As a result, a very difficult economic situation has been created, which will inevitably have a negative impact on the stability of public finances, leading to a sharp increase in public debt. At the same time, given the existence of the several crises (security, economic, political, social), the emergence of government debt crisis will have catastrophic consequences for the Armenian economy. This analysis aims to study the effects of 2020 shocks on the Government debt of the Republic of Armenia. In this paper the dynamics of government debt in recent years and the reasons for sharp increase in government debt in 2020 were studied, as well as the expected trends in government debt in the coming years were discussed.

What to expect from the administration of the 46th US President Joe Biden

The analysis discusses the foreign policy vision of President-elect Joe Biden's administration. The study of Biden's position on issues such as US relations with Iran, Russia, Turkey, as well as the policy towards the South Caucasus, it becomes clear that Biden's foreign policy will be more active and aggressive. The issue of human rights protection in other countries can be used as a means of building relations with other countries and putting pressure on them. One of the main goals of the foreign policy will be to restore the US role as a world leader. As for the bilateral relations, Russia will continue to be seen as the main opponent, and Iran as one of the main rivals. The US policy towards Turkey will not change dramatically, but tougher rhetoric, up to the imposition of light sanctions will be possible. The main political priorities for the South Caucasus will be maintained. Full material is only available in Armenian.

How did Ambassador Świtalski misread the foundations of Armenia's foreign policy?

This analysis was ready for publication before the outbreak of hostilities on September 27 this year, however, due to the war and the restrictions imposed by it, it was not published. Over the past decade, a number of key events have taken place in the Republic of Armenia, which have had a great impact on the country's foreign relations and their dynamics. The Head of the European Union Delegation to Armenia during the most active phase of this very interesting period (2015-2019), Ambassador Piotr Świtalski, recently summarized his memoirs in a booklet, called “The Armenian revolution: an unfinished cable”. In his memoirs, Ambassador Świtalski reflects on various episodes of his activity in Armenia, focusing on the dynamics of Armenia-EU relations, the current state of the Karabakh settlement, and especially the developments that took place in Armenia immediately before and after the April 2018 revolution. In this review, we have addressed in detail the foreign policy issues reflected in this very interesting booklet, helping the reader to more comprehensively evaluate the assessments of the European Union's Chief Representative in Armenia. As part of the review, we also tried to figure out - can the mission of A...

There is a diplomatic solution. Opportunities and prospects for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict after the 2020 war

The article discusses the realities that preceded the Azerbaijani-Turkish military aggression of September 27 and triggered the war. It analyzes the effects of the war, the legal force and political significance of the tripartite statement on the cessation of war, as well as the opportunities and prospects for the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It is revealed that the Azeri-Turkish aggression was made possible by using the settlement process for internal political purposes, by contrasting the settlement process with meaningless and extremely dangerous “ideas” to the principles developed over decades within the OSCE Minsk Group, by not heeding the voiced warnings, and by completely failing international relations. It is shown that though the tripartite statement on the cessation of hostilities was important in terms of establishing a ceasefire and deploying peacekeepers, it is illegal in terms of resolving territorial issues; it contradicts the basic principles of international law, the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia and it constitutes an act of capitulation for Armenia. However, after the handover of Karvachar and Lachin regions, it seems senseless to dispute it. Instead, efforts should be focuse...

Reference on the state budget of the RA of 2021

The present analysis is devoted to the investigation of the key aspects of the state budget of the RA. First, we consider the projections of macroeconomic variables forming the basis of the budget, then we analyse the planned values of parameters of the general and central budget of the RA. We pay particular attention to the comparison of the planned values of revenues and expenditures with the actual levels observed in previous years. In the end we make conclusions in order to assess whether the budget addresses the problems that exist in the RA. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The UN General Assembly's 75th session, the main emphasis in the speeches of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan

This analysis was ready for publication before the outbreak of hostilities on September 27 this year, however, due to the war and the restrictions imposed by it, it was not published. The symbolic 75th session of the UN General Assembly has attracted the attention of the whole world, especially in view of the global crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic and the vacuum of international leadership in the fight against the epidemic. Most countries use the UN General Assembly podium to present their basic approaches to a variety of foreign policy issues: the speeches made there are not just texts based on the expediency of the situation, but pass through a serious preparatory stage, proceed from the strategic ideas of the given countries. In this regard, it is important to understand how the authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan used the main tribune of the United Nations in order to convey their main message to the world and their own society. Within the framework of this article, we tried to identify the main accents of the speeches of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, considering them in comparison.

Coronavirus, geopolitical rearrangements and Armenia

This analysis was ready for publication before the outbreak of hostilities on September 27 this year, however, due to the war and the restrictions imposed by it, it was not published. Small states often underestimate the potential of global realities from the point of view of their state security, while the latter are more vulnerable to undesirable geopolitical developments, as disproportionate responses to them can expose such countries to existential danger. One of the most important achievements of Armenia since the restoration of independence has been that at various stages of the country's development, the authorities have been able to pay adequate attention to geopolitical processes and save the country from various threats and shocks associated with these processes. The crisis that has arisen in the world as a result of COVID-19, as in the case of all global crises, is accelerating the processes of geopolitical changes that have already begun. In the framework of this analysis, we have tried to assess the geopolitical consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, the peculiarities of the changing world order, as well as to understand the possible impact of these changes on Armenia and the region.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-October 2020

A study on the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first nine months of 2020

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-September 2020

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-August 2020

After the ceasefire. The only real solution is the international recognition of Artsakh

It may seem that before the war is over, it is too early to talk about what to do after the ceasefire. But the imperative to address the issue of what to do today comes literally from stressing the importance of tomorrow. The struggle waged for more than three decades has reached its peak today. The large-scale Azeri-Turkish aggression that began on September 27 requires absolute consolidation, not only to defeat the enemy on the battlefield, but also for the international recognition of Artsakh, because the current situation is unprecedented and most favorable for that. Of course, international recognition is a very difficult issue, but there is simply no other expectation from the international community as a factor to exclude the recurrence of such aggressions in the future. Therefore, all efforts, means and opportunities should be focused on the international recognition of Artsakh, the most effective beginning of which may be the recognition by the Minsk Group co-chairing countries. For that, it is first necessary to define the interconnected internal-external goals and the urgent steps and means to achieve them.

Conceptual bases of secession success analysis

The article discusses the methods of comparative analysis of ethno-political conflicts, secession and the problems of ensuring the effectiveness of the analysis of these processes. The various principles and models used for comparative analysis are considered, as well as specific examples of ethno-political conflicts that arose or resumed after the collapse of the communist unions, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. The discussion of the results of the application of both qualitative and quantitative models of secession analysis shows that the complexity of ethno-political conflicts and the processes of their settlement, as well as their multifactorial nature, require the application of a complex interdisciplinary research approach. Moreover, in these models, the authors avoid considering the legal component of the problem for two reasons: first, political scientists often have difficulty in observing non-political aspects of the problem in the legal scientific field, and second, due to political expediency, the problem is often mythologized: it is declared that there is an international choice between the right of peoples self-determination and the principle of territorial integrity. This seriously diminishes the credibility of the...

Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia for the development of the industrial sector in Armenia

The current government and the political majority of the Republic of Armenia in their programming documents stipulate that the activities of the government are aimed at building a high-technology, industrial, as well as an export-oriented, competitive and inclusive economy that meets high environmental standards. Are these promises being kept or not? The purpose of this study is to analyze the promises given by the political majority and the Government of the Republic of Armenia for the development of industry and the activities taken for their implementation. The document provides also detailed statistical analysis of 2017-2020 years, providing comparative analysis of relevant indicators. The full material is only available in Armenian.

Energy Transition Index in the RA (2020)

Anti-corruption courts: The model proposed in Armenia and the experience of other countries

The Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Armenia has submitted a legislative package for public discussion, which proposes to establish a specialized anti-corruption court within the framework of the anti-corruption strategy. The analysis by the “Luys” Foundation established that such specialized courts are more prevalent in countries of African and Asian regions with lower-than-average level of rule of law and high level of corruption, as well as in only certain countries of Europe. The analysis addresses most problematic aspects of the legislative package, in particular, the effectiveness of narrow specialization of courts, the distinction between extraordinary and specialized courts, and the difference in the status of an anti-corruption court judge, which raise concerns from the point of constitutionality as well as efficiency and expediency. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Discourse of correlation: direct proportional relationship between level of democracy and quality of public administration

This article studies and systematically analyzes a number of theories and concepts regarding quality of public administration. The article defines the conceptual foundations of criteria of the quality and efficiency of public administration. This article notes the importance of a systematic approach to assessing the quality of public administration, for example, the degree of executive autonomy in political decision-making process, the development of mechanisms for promotion and transparency in the state bureaucracy and etc. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-June 2020

On the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first half of 2020

Comparative analysis of economic crises in Armenia

The objective of the present comparative analysis is to compare the three economic crises which took place in Armenia during the history of its independence, namely the transition crisis of 1991-1993, world financial crisis of 2009 and current covid-19 created crisis of 2020. The purpose of analysis is to assess the depth of each crisis, reveal the main driving forces and causes of each crisis, as well as to point out the most dangerous consequences, that crisis (in the case of current 2020 crisis) may bring to. Full material is only available in Armenian․

The national security strategy of the Republic of Armenia in the context of changes in the external environment and in the region

For a modern state, the national security strategy is a key document; it sets guidelines for the further development of the state, for the realization of one of its main missions - to ensure security. Due to various circumstances, a comprehensive study of the external environment and an assessment of the corresponding threats are especially important for the development of a security strategy for Armenia. With this analysis we have tried to present some observations on the external security component of the security strategy. At the same time, we have analyzed the assessments of Armenia's external security environment, existing and potential threats and proposed strategic solutions within the framework of the new national security strategy. To this end, we have studied the external security environment in which the previous security strategy was developed and put into circulation, what situation we have today, to what extent the new strategy is equivalent to that environment, and the situation we can face in the medium term. Full material is only available in Armenian․

Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia in the field of State Budget development and management (2018-2019)

After the well-known events of 2018, the current Government of the Republic of Armenia announced the need to create a free, dignified and happy citizen. Overcoming poverty, eliminating extreme poverty in a short time, strengthening social security, increasing the effectiveness of support for vulnerable groups, as well as creating a large number of new jobs were considered as the key components for achievement of this aim. The purpose of this study is to analyse the promises made by the Government of the Republic of Armenia and the political majority to overcome poverty, promote social justice and employment, and the steps taken by the Government for the implementation of that promises. The full material is only available in Armenian.

Medium-Term Public Expenditure Framework for 2021-2023

The primary document that defines the medium-term (that is, for the upcoming three years) objectives of the government of the RA is the framework of public medium-term expenditures (MTEF), which is at the same time one of the main tools for fiscal policy communication. The effective use of the MTEF for that purpose is especially important in times of crisis (such as the 2020 year), as it can give policy signals to economic agents, positively affect expectations and decrease the uncertainty in the economy. The present analysis is aimed at exploring the MTEF for 2021-2023, in particular the structure of the program, the main macroeconomic forecasts and directions of fiscal policy, which reflect the government's expectations regarding the further development of the economic situation as well as government actions to respond to the crisis and ensure a rapid economic recovery. Full material is only available in Armenian.

References to the Vienna and St. Petersburg agreements in the official statements of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs in 2016-2018 and 2018-2020; comparative analysis

The victory on the battlefield during the offensive operations of Azerbaijan during the April war of 2016 was effectively capitalized by the Armenian diplomacy. As a result, the Vienna and St. Petersburg agreements on building confidence and introducing mechanisms for investigating border incidents, as well as expanding the mission of the personal representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office became a priority in the negotiation process. After the political changes in Armenia in the spring of 2018, these agreements were removed from the agenda of the negotiation process, creating favorable conditions for new provocations by Azerbaijan. In response to the criticism on this issue after the July events at the front, the Armenian authorities began to justify themselves insisting that they did not exclude the Vienna and St. Petersburg agreements from the agenda of the negotiation process, while at the same time trying to question the importance of these agreements. In the framework of this comparative analysis, we have tried to study all the official statements and press releases of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs from April 2016 to July 2020, trying to compare the changes in their content before and after the change of power in Armenia...

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-June 2020

The illusion of self-confidence. The Dunning-Kruger effect

The more you know, the more you know you don't know. Meanwhile, the less one knows, the more confident he is. This phenomenon of the inflated self-esteem and the delusion of adequacy is called “The Dunning-Kruger effect”. Why some people cannot adequately assess their skills and abilities? What consequences this may have and what distinguishes truly competent people? These and other issues are analyzed in this article. Full material is only available in Armenian․

The composition and risk characteristics of the credit portfolio in the financial system of the RA

In the current paper we present the composition and risk characteristics of the credit portfolio in the financial system of the RA. We demonstrate that in 2018 and 2019 the shares of consumer and mortgage loans rose at the expense of “dilution” of relative volumes of business loans. As a result of outstripping growth of consumer loans, a disbalance between incomes and loan liabilities has emerged in the sector of households. The dynamics of mortgage loans is problematic as well, since it is significantly above its medium-term trend. Concerning the reduction of relative volumes of business loans, it poses serious constraints to small and medium-sized enterprises. The improvement of this situation is related to financial rehabilitation of the private sector and revitalization of economic processes, which can restore sustainability of private debt via outpacing growth of GDP. Full material is only available in Armenian․

Manipulation in politics: populist discourse

This article attempts to explain the essence and ideological components of the term of populism. The social and ideological origins of the new populism are revealed, and is made an attempt to explain the growing support of the public to populists. In this article, we have attempted to describe in details the features of populism at different stages of historical development. We have described the formulas for the success of populist governments in transitional and developed countries. We drew Parallels between liberalism and populism, explaining their differences. Full material is only available in Armenian․

The COVID-19 pandemic and the challenge to fundamental rights

COVID-19 is a public health emergency - which is rapidly developing into a human rights crisis. States often impose restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus, without taking into account the fundamental rights and the requirements for their restriction. Since March 16, 2020, the right to assembly is completely restricted in Armenia while the functioning of a number of public facilities is permitted. А reasonable question arises, whether the implemented restrictions on fundamental rights are legitimate? Full material is only available in Armenian․

Stages, situation and prospects of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement process

After the NKR presidential and parliamentary elections in April and the change of power in the Republic of Armenia in 2018, a situation has been formulated when in Artsakh and the Republic of Armenia people who had no connection with the process or have been out of the circle directly involved in the issue, have taken a key role in the settlement process. The obvious lack of necessary knowledge and experience among responsible structures and officials, the lack of advanced Armenian professional environment, the formation of unfavorable views on the conflict in various international arenas in recent years, both on the nature of the conflict and possible settlement scenarios, significantly expand the range of challenges and increase the likelihood of negative developments. In order not to allow the settlement process to have irreversible dangerous developments and not to lose the unprecedented result achieved during the three decades of independence, it is necessary to put the activities aimed at ensuring a favorable result in the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict on various levels at the professional basis as soon as possible. The article discusses the stages of the settlement process, reveals the evolution and results...

Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia in the field of State Budget development and management (2018-2019)

The political changes that took place in the country in the spring of 2018 should have had an impact on the main financial document of the country, the development and implementation of the State Budget of the Republic of Armenia. Having a majority in the National Assembly, the "My Step" Alliance, since 2019 has an opportunity to develop the State Budget in accordance with their statements, ensure its implementation for the achievement of the announced “economic revolution” or at least for establishing basis for that. Provisions relating to the State Budget and public finance were reflected in pre-election programme of “My step” Alliance, which received the support of the majority of Armenian citizens in the 2018, as well as in the "Program of the Government of the Republic of Armenia" adopted on February 8, 2019. This study presents the promises made by the Government of the Republic of Armenia and the political majority in the public finance and analyses the steps taken by the Government for the implementation of that promises in period 2018-2019. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Property tax reforms without introduction of market valuation system

The legislative package of property tax reforms, being amended multiple times over past years, was fully adopted by the National Assembly. That means higher real estate tax burden for households and firms, because of increased tax base. The “Luys” Foundation has analyzed the legislative package on property taxes. The research mainly covers the following questions: How much will the property tax burden increase in different cities and regions of Armenia? Has the government been able to implement an effective system of market valuation of the real estate? What kind of tools is the government going to use to mitigate the increase in the property tax burden for the socially vulnerable citizens? Will local authorities be able to properly collect property tax, which will increase by several times? Full material is only available in Armenian.

Comparative analysis of the European Parliament recommendations in the run-up to the 2017 and 2020 Eastern Partnership Summits

On June 19 the European Parliament approved the document of recommendations in the run-up to the 2020 Eastern Partnership Summit addressed to various EU institutions, which sets clear political guidelines for the further development of EU relations with its Eastern partners. In this analysis, we tried to compare the quotations on various issues of interest to Armenia accordingly from the similar documents published in the run-up to the 2017 and 2020 EaP Summits. The comparative analysis shows that the EU's approach to a number of key for Armenia issues have undergone negative changes compared to the 2017 document. Of particular concern are the assessments made in the document on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and commonly regarding the conflicts in the EAP region. The analysis shows that from the point of view of Armenian (including parliamentary) diplomacy, this document as a whole is a derogation from the 2017 document. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-May 2020

Data from the 2019 report of the Anti-Corruption Body of the Council of Europe-GRECO for Armenia and comparison of overall ratings with those of other countries of the Eastern Partnership

The Council of Europe’s anti-corruption body-GRECO published its annual report for 2019, examining how its Member States have been implementing GRECO’s recommendations on the prevention of corruption among parliamentarians, judges and prosecutors. Earlier, the RA Ministry of Justice presented the Armenian translation of the second compliance report on the fulfillment of Armenia's commitments of the recommendations issued in the GRECO’s fourth evaluation report on Armenia. With this analysis, we tried to compare the assessments given to Armenia with those of other member states of the Eastern Partnership. We also touched upon those recommendations presented to Armenia in the fourth round evaluation report, which were not sufficiently implemented, or during the implementation of which the authorities made significant omissions. The study shows that the Armenian authorities did not make enough efforts to implement a number of recommendations; as a result, there are half measure solutions and serious omissions in various areas. Full material is only available in Armenian․

On the execution report of the state budget of the RA of 2019

Possible changes in UK foreign and security policy after Brexit process: the consequences for the South Caucasus region

The South Caucasus region has traditionally been at the core of Britain's geopolitical interests, and London still attaches great importance to the processes taking place in the region. With this analysis, we have tried to understand the geopolitical consequences of the Brexit process, as well as to assess the impact it will have on British policy in the South Caucasus. The study of a number of processes has led to the conclusion that after the Brexit process, London will try to strengthen its presence and influence in the South Caucasus region. This presence can and should be used for the benefit of Armenia, including in the issue of the Karabakh conflict, using also the ties and authority of the President of the Republic of Armenia.

Epidemic situation in Armenia and other countries in the region, according to

Recently, the " COVID-19 Regional Safety Assessment Report" was published, which presents the situation with coronavirus, security rating and threats in 200 countries around the world. With this analysis, we have tried to highlight the most remarkable data for Armenia, as well as compare them with the data of other countries in the region. According to the report, Armenia ranks 81st, behind all countries in the region. At the same time, the data reflected in it show that the severe epidemic situation in Armenia is conditioned not by the fact that the potential of the state is limited, or by the behavior and culture of the population, but by the failure of quarantine and inefficient management. Full material is only available in Armenian․

Estimating the size of the shadow economy of the RA from the perspective of the tax system

There is a lot of research and evidence showing that economic reforms can succeed if they rely on credible and comprehensive information and data. The latter allows to diagnose the macroeconomic situation accurately, paving the way for effective managerial decisions. In this regard, it is of utmost importance to have a quantitative estimate for the shadow economy of the RA. To this end, we develop an econometric model, based on the currency demand approach. According to computations, the shadow economy of the RA amounts to 27-28% of the formal GDP. Furthermore, in the RA a slowdown in the speed of the contraction of the shadow economy has been observed since mid-2016. This implies that it is necessary to rethink the strategy of formalising the shadow economy of the RA, by placing a special emphasis on the following 3 dimensions – revision of tax rules, modification of the model of tax administration and restrictions on cash transactions. Full material is only available in Armenian.

On the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first quarter of 2020

Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia in the field of tourism (2018-2019)

Tourism is one of priority sectors of Armenian economy. That’s why it is not surprisingly, that development of the sector and the growth of tourists flows were reflected in pre-election programme of “My step” Alliance, which received the support of the majority of Armenian citizens in the 2018, as well as in the "Program of the Government of the Republic of Armenia" adopted on February 8, 2019. This study presents the promises made by the Government of the Republic of Armenia and the political majority in the tourism development, analyses the steps taken by the Government for the implementation of that promises in period 2018-2019, as well as the possible impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the sector. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-April 2020

Measures in the field of justice conditioned by coronavirus (COVID-19): international experience and Armenia

The spread of the new coronavirus has forced to reveal and implement alternative mechanisms in order to insure, on the one hand, the sustainable functioning of state institutions, the provision of public services and, on the other hand, to prevent the spread of the disease and ensure public health and safety. The effective provision of public services should comprise also the sphere of justice because a person, his dignity and rights are at the center of the modern legal state. The state is obliged to provide appropriate organizational mechanisms and procedures guaranteeing the exercise of fundamental human rights. This study examines the measures taken in different countries to prevent the spread of the coronavirus infection, including the fields of criminal, civil law and procedure, e-justice, as well as penitentiary law. Based on a comparative analysis of the measures taken in Armenia and abroad additional measures to prevent the consequences of the infection for the justice field are proposed. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Freedom of expression and hate speech. Analysis of Armenian legislation and international experience

The supplement to the Criminal Code of the Republic of Armenia, which envisages liability for making public calls to exert violence, for publicly justifying violence or for advocating such violence (hate speech) entered into force on 16 May of 2020. “Luys” foundation has conducted a research on the legitimacy of the criminalization of the hate speech in the context of freedom of expression and proportionality of its restriction. The research addresses also the relevant international documents on restricting the hate speech, as well as examines the practice of the European Court of Human Rights and the experience of other countries. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Theatricalization of politics

This article attempts to analyze the technology of dramatization of the political process with the participation of the main characters of political symbolism. The article presents the phenomenon of political carnival with all the features of behavioral and imaginative dimensions. The main purpose and function of the carnival is to make masses to do necessary actions having an illusion of independent behavior. The article studies theatralization of politics according to the game theory logic. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The measures to overcome the crisis, caused by the new coronavirus (COVID-19), in the world and Armenia: a comparative analysis

New coronavirus (COVID-19) has disrupted the normal evolution of the world economy. Countries, including the Republic of Armenia, have taken a number of measures to overcome the crisis. Some governments have focused on non-compensable forms of financial assistance, others – on compensable forms. The goal of this research is to study the international experience of measures to contain the COVID-19 crisis, with the aim of assessing the efficacy of the fiscal package developed by the government of the RA. In particular, we analyze the volumes and objectives of the measures taken by the United States of America, some European countries (Germany, Hungary) and the Russian Federation. Based on these findings, we explore the consistency of the anticrisis policy of the government of the RA with the demands of our times and the Armenian reality.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-March 2020

The Index of Economic Freedom in the RA

Comparative analysis of the Law of the Republic of Armenia “On amending the law of the Republic of Armenia “On the legal regime of a state of emergency” and the legislation of other countries

On March 31, 2020, in an extraordinary sitting, the National Assembly adopted the laws of the Republic of Armenia “On amending the law of the Republic of Armenia “On the legal regime of a state of emergency” and “On amending the law of the Republic of Armenia “On electronic communication” which allow to record the location and phone calls of citizens on the basis of information provided by mobile operators during the state of emergency declared because of the epidemic. The Human rights defender, a number of other human rights’ activists have expressed their concern about the mentioned draft laws. We conducted a study of international experience on this issue, which highlights the approaches of international organizations and shows that legislative changes in Armenia provide for excessive interference with the rights to protection of personal data and privacy. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-February 2020

The EU document

On March 18, 2020, the European Union published a document entitled "Eastern Partnership policy beyond 2020", which outlines the new, long-term EU policy for the EaP program after 2020 and sets out the measures under this policy. On March 16, the “Luys” Foundation published an analysis entitled "The prospects for the EU Eastern Partnership program and Armenia", trying to outline the main projects on the future of the Eastern Partnership discussed by Europeans. The document, published on March 18, already clarifies some of the key EU policy approaches to the program. With this analysis, we have attempted to explore the document presented by the EU and understand what the EU's policy towards the EaP project will be after 2020. We presented the main ideas and priorities outlined in the document, and then tried to figure out by which model the EaP program will eventually move forward.

Reference on the execution of the budget of the city of Yerevan (2019)

Comments on the amended version of the package of draft law “On Amendments and Additions to the Constitutional Law of the Republic of Armenia “On the Judicial Code of the Republic of Armenia” and related draft laws

On March 3, 2020, during regular meetings, the National Assembly of RA adopted, in the first reading, a package of draft law “On Amending and Adding to the Constitutional Law of the RA “Judicial Code of the Republic of Armenia” and related draft laws. “Luys” foundation presented its comments on the draft laws when it still was at the stage of public discussions. In this analysis, we will examine the revised version of the package of drafts, which, among others, provides for changes in the system of disciplinary responsibility of judges, in the procedures and functions of the Commission for the prevention of corruption, in the field of declaring property and income. Full material is only available in Armenian․

The prospects for the EU Eastern Partnership Program and Armenia

EU Eastern Partnership (EaP) – “20 Deliverables for 2020” program is coming to an end, and this year EU countries plan to develop a new policy that should become the main guideline for the development of the EaP program in the coming years. Cooperation with the EU within the EaP program is one of the priorities of Armenia's foreign policy, so it is very important to understand what are the EU approaches to possible models of EaP project development. The purpose of this analysis is to understand which projects on the future of the Eastern Partnership are mainly discussed by Europeans, which of them have a greater chance of being implemented. We also tried to present Armenia's priorities within the framework of the program, assess the effectiveness of the steps taken by the Armenian authorities.

Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia aimed at increasing investments (2018-2019)

After the political events of 2018, the new Government of the Republic of Armenia announced about the beginning of an “economic revolution”, one of the key components of which is improvement of the investment environment in Armenia, increase the country's international investment position and attractiveness, and encouragement the flow of large investment to the Republic of Armenia. The approaches to ensure investment growth were reflected in the pre-election programme of “My step” Alliance, which received the support of the majority of Armenian citizens in the 2018, as well as in the "Program of the Government of the Republic of Armenia" adopted on February 8, 2019. The purpose of this study is to analyse the promises of the Government of Armenia and main stapes taken for their implementation, and to understand whether Armenia is moving in the right direction to attract investment. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Revised comments on the draft law on the law of the RA

On March 3, 2020 the draft law of the Republic of Armenia "On Confiscation of Property of Illegal Origin" was included in the agenda of the regular sittings of the fourth session of the 7th National Assembly of the RA. The draft provides for the introduction of the institute of confiscation of property without sentencing in a criminal case, which in international practice is an exceptional means of combating particularly dangerous crimes. Despite the fact that from the state’s point of view confiscation of property of illegal origin, by means of civil proceedings, is an effective and simple way to combat crime, this institute contains the risk of abuse and serious violations of fundamental human rights. This is due to the fact that in international practice, as a rule, the confiscation is applied in cases where criminal prosecution is impossible due to a person’s death or circumstances caused by a person’s guilt that justify and make such extremely serious interference with human rights and guarantees of criminal proceedings proportional. This analysis presents a revised version of the opinion on the package of draft laws presented by the Ministry of Justice published by the “Luys” foundation on Octob...

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA in January 2020

The results of the

The purpose of this analysis is to identify whether the recorded economic growth in 2019 is enough to consider the “economic revolution” successful. Armenia's economic growth in 2019 was 7.6 percent. Is this a "revolutionary" indicator?Armenia's economic growth in 2019 is higher than in previous years, but even ignoring the high economic growth during pre-crisis (2001-2007) period, we can mention that in 2012 and 2017 the economic growth was almost as high as in 2019: 7.2% and 7.5% respectively. It turns out, that "economic revolution" means only 0.1 or 0.4 percentage points acceleration of economic growth. Otherwise, we can argue that there has been at least twice "revolutionary" economic growth in the past several years.

Corruption Perceptions Index in the RA

Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index in the RA

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-December 2019

Global Gender Gap Index in the RA

Armenian Security Agenda in the Context of Events between the USA and Iran

Recent developments around the US-Iran conflict have been in the focus of expert community around the world, and from this point of view Armenia cannot be an exception. Given the geographical location of Armenia and Artsakh, the geopolitical situation in the region, any escalation of the US-Iran conflict carries great risks for Armenian states. In this regard, the Luys Foundation organized a discussion on January 17, during which the invited experts discussed the security agenda of the Republic of Armenia in the context of recent developments around the US-Iran conflict. The experts invited to the discussion, Suren Sargsyan, Director of the Armenian Center for American Studies and Artiom Tonoyan, Lecturer, Department of Iranian Studies, YSU, presented their analyzes and views on the current stage of the US-Iran conflict. Experts also talked about how the current situation can affect the internal political processes of the conflicting parties, what the Armenian side should do in this situation, and presented possible scenarios for the development of the conflict. This analytical article is based on the abovementioned discussion. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Energy Transition Index in the RA (2018-2019)

Reference on the budget of Yerevan of 2020

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-November 2019

Human Development Indices and Indicators in the RA (2019)

Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia aimed at improving the business environment (2018-2019)

The process of political changes in Armenia in 2018 was accompanied by strong criticism of issues related to business and the investment environment, promises of creating a fair competitive environment and equal economic opportunities for all, encouraging investment and ensuring economic growth. The promises of the revolutionaries were reflected to some extent in pre-election programme of “My step” Alliance, which received the support of the majority of Armenian citizens in the 2018, as well as in the "Program of the Government of the Republic of Armenia" adopted on February 8, 2019. The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia in terms of keeping the promises made in the above programs. Full material is available only in Armenian.

Analysis of the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia aimed at the implementation of the Armenia-EU Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (2018-2019)

The cooperation between the Republic of Armenia and the European Union started from the very first day of Armenia's independence, and today, it has become one of the important directions of the foreign policy of Armenia. The signing of the Armenia - EU Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2017 marked the beginning of a new era of cooperation between Armenia and the EU. This study presents the promises made by the Government of the Republic of Armenia regarding the implementation of the CEPA, documents, programs and strategies developed by the Government of the Republic of Armenia for implementation of the agreement, as well as the EU support mechanisms and tools provided for implementation these policy documents. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Analysis of the SME development activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia (2018-2019)

Political changes in 2018 created new opportunities and expectations for the socio-economic development of the country. Ideas of these changes were reflected in pre-election programme of “My step” Alliance, which received the support of the majority of Armenian citizens in the 2018, as well as in the "Program of the Government of the Republic of Armenia" adopted on February 8, 2019. These programs also reference to the importance of the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and describe main stapes and measures aimed at achieving these goals. This study presents the promises made by the Government of the Republic of Armenia to SME development and analyses the steps taken by the Government for the implementation of that promises in period 2018-2019. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Analysis of the export promotion activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia (2018-2019)

In April-May 2018, the political changes took place in Armenia, the ideas of which were reflected in pre-election programme of “My step” Alliance, which received the support of the majority of Armenian citizens in the 2018, as well as in the "Program of the Government of the Republic of Armenia" adopted on February 8, 2019. According to the Programme of the Government of Armenia “During the upcoming five years the activities of the Government of the Republic of Armenia will be aimed at building competitive and inclusive economy in the Republic of Armenia that … is export-oriented.” This study presents the promises made by the Government of the Republic of Armenia to promote exports and analyses the steps taken by the Government for the implementation of that promises in period 2018-2019. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-October 2019

A study on the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first nine months of 2019

Recent developments around Iran and the risks for Armenia

While public attention in Armenia is focused on the domestic political agenda, not far from our borders there are taking place events, with serious military-political and economic threats to Armenia. In this context, recent developments around Iran deserve special attention. Within the framework of this analysis, the peculiarities of the situation around Iran were examined and potential threats to Armenia were identified, considering the crisis in a regional context and assessing the behavior of international players. The main purpose of the analysis is to draw the attention of the Armenian public, experts and political circles to the threats emanating from the current situation, emphasizing the importance of consolidating the society, bridging the internal gap and further harmonizing cooperation between Armenia and Artsakh in order to counter these threats.

Reference on the state budget of the RA of 2020

Summarizing the 74th Session of the UN General Assembly․ important messages for the region and for Armenia

The 74th session of the UN General Assembly was held on September 17-30 in New York. It is no secret that most countries use the UN GA tribune to present their main approaches to various foreign policy issues. The speeches from this tribune do not just contain texts that pursue exclusively situational goals; they go through a serious preparatory stage and are based on the strategic perception of particular issues by the respective countries. Studying the speeches of representatives of different countries, as well as other events within the framework of the UN General Assembly allow us to understand their key messages for Armenia and the region.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-September 2019

Global Competitiveness Index in the RA

Establishment of a Fact-finding commission according to the strategy of judicial and legal reforms in the RA for 2019-2023

On October 10, 2019 the RA government approved the judicial and legal reforms strategy in the Republic of Armenia for 2019-2023 within the framework of which, in the first quarter of 2020, a Fact-finding commission is expected to be created. Such commissions are temporary, extrajudicial bodies that establish facts of mass and gross violations of human rights or humanitarian law in the past. Such commissions were basically created in societies exhausted by the civil war and dictatorship, such as Ecuador, Kenya, Mauritius, Solomon Islands and Togo. This analysis presents the circumstances that led to the creation of such commissions in international practice, the problems that arose during the creation of the commissions and, in the light of the latter, the model of the fact-finding commission proposed by the government of the RA. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The reforms of property taxation in the RA: are we on the right track?

In the RA the reforms of property taxation are fairly relevant and urgent, since this area features numerous problems that require legislative solutions. The international experience points out that relative to GDP the volume of property taxes of the RA is inadequate compared with commensurate countries. To ensure more efficient taxation of property it is necessary to make amendments in the methodology of assessing cadastral value by diminishing its deviation from the market value. However, the legislative package proposed by the government of the RA does not entail clear mechanisms of property assessment and amplifies the instability and uncertainty around property tax rates. Full material is only available in Armenian.

New European political landscape

The 9th legislature of the European Parliament officially started its work in July. It is the only supranational parliament in the world that is directly elected, is empowered to regulate the single market, and to distribute public funds to the EU's overall budget. Therefore, the European elections attract a lot of public attention. The results of this year's election sent a clear message that EU voters want change. In order to evaluate the results correctly, it is necessary to consider them from several dimensions. This analysis attempts to study the main trends of the elections and their further impact on EU activities. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Comments on the draft law “On Confiscation of Property of Illegal Origin.”

On September 6, 2019, the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Armenia published draft laws “On introducing amendments and supplements to the law “On Confiscation of Property of Illegal Origin” and related draft laws. In international experience, confiscation without conviction is an exceptional measure in the fight against particularly dangerous crimes. Despite the fact that from the state’s point of view the confiscation of property of illegal origin, by means of civil proceedings, is an effective and simple way to combat crime, this institute contains the risk of abuse and serious violations of fundamental human rights. This is due to the fact that in the international experience, as a rule, the confiscation is applied in the cases where criminal prosecution is impossible due to person’s death or circumstances caused by person’s guilt that justify such extremely serious interference with human rights and guarantees of criminal proceedings and make it proportional. This analysis presents the proposed regulations of the draft law, as well as provides a comparative analysis of the latter in the light of international experience. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-August 2019

On the framework of public medium-term expenditures

The primary document that defines the medium-term (that is, for the upcoming three years) objectives of the government of the RA is the framework of public medium-term expenditures. This framework allows to manage financial resourses of the public sector in accordance with the medium-term fiscal objectives. It consists of two parts, the first one of which describes the fiscal policy of the government and the second one – the strategy of the spending policy. The framework of medium-term expenditures serves as a basis for developing the draft state budget. The present analysis is aimed at exploring the foregoing framework. Full material is only available in Armenian.

On the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first half of 2019

Comparison of the sustainability of the public administration system of Armenia and Eastern Partnership associated states

In March 2019 SIGMA released an analysis, entitled “Baseline Measurement Report: Principles of Public Administration", which analyzed the six key areas of public administration in Armenia with a specific methodology, provided estimates on these areas. The assessments reflected in the report are particularly important in the context of the recent discussions in Armenia, according to which the present authorities have inherited a "failed state system"․ Earlier, SIGMA also prepared reports with similar content on other EU Eastern Partnership countries, in particular on Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. A comparative analysis of reports on Armenia and these countries suggests that in many areas Armenia is at the same level or has advantages over these countries.

The tendencies and developments in the tradable sector of the economy of the RA

The export of goods and services is of paramount importance for every economy. This is why the majority of countries adopt an export-oriented economic policy. In 2019 the RA has experienced a slowdown in the growth rates of the export. Indeed, over January-July of 2019 the exports have increased by 3.0 percent compared with the same period of the previous year, while in 2018 the same indicator amounted to 17.6 percent. To revive foreign trade of the RA, it is necessary to ensure diversification of the structure and directions of the export industry. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Comments on the package of draft laws “On Amendments and Additions to the constitutional law “Judicial Code of the Republic of Armenia”, “On amendments and supplements to the constitutional law of the Republic of Armenia “On the Constitutional Court” and related draft laws submitted by the Ministry of Justice on August 9, 2019

On August 9, 2019, the RA Ministry of Justice submitted for public discussion draft laws “On amendments and supplements to the constitutional law “Judicial Code of the Republic of Armenia”, “On amendments and supplements to the constitutional law of the Republic of Armenia “On Constitutional Court” and related draft laws. The draft laws significantly expand the grounds for holding judges of the constitutional court and ordinary court judges accountable for disciplinary violations and termination of their powers, thereby weakening the external independence of the latter. The ministry provides for the introduction of an “early retirement scheme” according to which a resigned judge of the Constitutional court, regardless of the age, can retain his salary at the time of resignation until the end of his term. The ministry justifies the necessity of introducing the institute by the criticized experience of Poland and Hungary, which is presented by the ministry as international experience. Also, the proposed procedure for the election of members of the Commission for the prevention of corruption is extremely worrying. In particular, it is problematic to assign to the Commission functions th...

Foreign financing of public organizations and foundations: legislative regulation of the Republic of Armenia and international experience

An analysis of international experience shows that foreign funding of public organizations is of particular concern to states. As a result, stricter requirements of transparency and accountability are established in individual countries, taking into account the need to prevent possible cases of money laundering and terrorism, as well as ensure the security of the state and society. The legislation of the Republic of Armenia does not provide special requirements for transparency and accountability of public organizations receiving foreign funding. The analysis presents the international experience of regulating foreign financing of public organizations and foundations, as well as the possibility of introducing special requirements of transparency and accountability in the Republic of Armenia. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Underperformance of capital expenditures of the RA state budget and its possible consequences

From the most of the analysis on this topic, it can be concluded that the non-execution of public capital expenditure leads to economic growth penalty. Therefore, the proper implementation of capital spending should be a positive outcome for the government of each country, and their underperformance is alarming. Given that capital expenditure impacts economic growth in different ways, in this analysis, we applied a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), which describes the whole economy quite well and allows to observe the impact of capital expenditure underperformance on all sectors of the economy. At the core of the analysis was the assumption that capital expenditure was reduced only one year, and in subsequent years, they were restored to a sustainable level. The results of the model used show that the highly conservative government behavior on capital spending is dangerous and in the long- run, it will fine the potential for economic growth. The impact of underperformance of capital expenditure on other macro variables is also assessed, such as private real investments, real wages, employment, real effective exchange rates,

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-July 2019

The perspectives of energy cooperation between Armenia and Iran

The potential of the Armenian-Iranian energy cooperation is often overestimated by the media-expert circles of Armenia. This contributes to the formation of unnecessary and unrealistic public expectations, which can lead to disappointment and ultimately negatively affect the further development of bilateral relations. There has been a great deal of work done to deepen bilateral energy cooperation over the last decades, as a result, although slowly, some positive developments have occurred. The fact that the two neighboring countries have the potential for cooperation is beyond doubt, but objective and subjective obstacles to the full realization of this potential should also be taken into account. Deepening the Armenian-Iranian energy cooperation is a mutually beneficial process, which every Armenian government should properly promote and ensure continuity of implementation of the programs on the agenda. This is an area where political will alone is not enough and a great deal of diplomatic and negotiation work is required for success.

The Importance of Evangelists for Trump, Azerbaijan and Armenia

Much can be said about the American Heartland and the influence that it has held on the soul of the United States for an enduring period of time. It can be said that the conservative, Christian sector of the US has been a very important counterweight to the more liberal tendencies on the coasts of the country. It has played heavily into the “blue state, red state” divide and expectedly given the US a more conservative character than some of the other Western nations of the modern day. Evangelical Christian community constitutes an important and weighty part of this conservative Christian sector. Evangelical Christianity is one of the Protestant confessions that gained its name from their pursuit of the implementation of the Scripture. Evangelical community makes up a significant portion of the US population. According to the 2014 survey of Pew research center the Evangelical percentage of the population is 25.4% (about 81 million people). The states with most evangelical population are Texas (6.5 million), California (3.5 million), Florida (3million) etc. Although the influence of the white evangelicals has been less visible, it has a significant impact on political decisions. More importantly though, this conser...

The “One Belt - One Road” program and the uncertain role of Armenia in it

China’s “One Belt, One Road” Initiative claims to become the so-called “New Marshall’s Plan” for the entire Eurasian region. Armenia, which has certain objective difficulties in regional and international integration, should try to maximize the use of opportunities of the Chinese initiative. In this regard, it is important to clarify the essence of the “One Belt - One Road” project, present the level of involvement of different countries in the region, understand the possible consequences of the project for Armenia and realistic expectations from it.

The Index of Economic Freedom in the RA

Concerning structure of economic growth in Armenia

Economic growth is one of the instruments for measuring the country's economic development. But only the existence of economic growth is not enough to talk about the country's economic development. It is more important that what leads to the economic growth and how economic growth is formulated. In cases when economic growth is mainly driven by one or two factors or when it is driven by the growth of the non-exportable economy, we cannot speak about long-term and sustainable economic growth. From this point of view the economic growth of the Republic of Armenia is also significant, as especially in the recent periods the economic growth is mainly conditioned by lotteries and bookmaking.

The developments in the balance of payments of the RA in the first quarter of 2019

Foreign economic and trade relations are significant for small economies, including the RA. These relations are being reflected in the balance of payments of the country. The latter consists of two parts – current account and financial (capital) account. The current account incorporates the trade balance (net export), net factor incomes and secondary incomes (net monetary transfers). Regarding the financial (capital) account, it represents the net inflow of capital, which manifests itself in direct and portfolio investments. The present analysis is devoted to the study of developments in the balance of payments of the RA. Full material is only available in Armenian.

On the execution report of the state budget of the RA for the first quarter of 2019

The social-economic developments in the economy of the RA for January-June 2019

About the Draft law “On amendments and supplements to the law “On the Commission for the Prevention of Corruption”

On June 25, 2019, the National Assembly adopted at first reading the draft law “On amendments and supplements to the law “On the Commission for the Prevention of Corruption” submitted by the President of the National Assembly A. Mirzoyan as a legislative initiative. The draft law provides for a new procedure for the formation of the commission, new requirements for members, as well as new powers granted to the latter. The article discusses the possible legal risks and their compatibility with internationally recognized principles. Full material is only available in Armenian.

The expected growth of export of the Azerbaijani gas as an instrument of foreign policy influence: possible consequences for Armenia and the region

As the quantity of petrol extraction drops and the international prices fall, exploring opportunities for export of gas are becoming more and more salient for Azerbaijan. Baku will try to use this as a means to serve its interests in international relations and strengthen its positions in the region. To estimate the threat of such developments for Armenia, this analysis attempts to study the perspectives and obstacles of the growth in size of the export of the Azerbaijani gas while taking into account the tendencies, which can be seen in the European, regional and worldwide gas markets. Full material is only available in Armenian.

Questions formulated in the conclusion of expert discussion on introduction of vetting and transitional justice in Armenia

Under the aegis of the “LUYS” foundation, an expert discussion on vetting and transitional justice in Armenia was held on June 11 of this year, with participation of reputable lawyers and political scientists. As a result of the discussion, a number of questions were identified that required answers before the formation of appropriate conceptual approaches and legislative packages. The list of questions was referred to the Commission on State and Legal Issues of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia, the Supreme Judicial Council of the Republic of Armenia, factions of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia, the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Armenia. Full material is only available in Armenian.